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P.D.P. INTO POLITICAL ECLIPSE: THE PARTY WILL NEVER BE THE SAME ASBEFORE - Abbati Bako

I WROTE THE BELOW POLITICAL PREDICTION IN 2013, WHAT A PRECISE AND ACCURATE POLITICAL ANALYSIS AND VERY-VERY INTERESTING TO READ. ENJOY READING

BY ABBATI BAKO (psc) 
Experts assert that politics is between "vision and practicality". Although it is difficult (sometime) to imagine or predict what will happen (tomorrow) in politics (due to human nature) but if certain factors would be looked into; one can get some ideas of what might happen in political game.

What happened last week in Abuja at PDP special convention may lead to a set back in our democratic practice. At this globalization era of 21st century it looks and sounds as counterproductive for any political party to allow analog leadership and be claiming that it wants to transform Nigeria into one of the strongest economies in the world by 20-20-20. Politics being a game of protecting someone's values and depending interest and building ambition; it will be hard for PDP to rule Nigeria for 60 years.The rebels in the party have no option than to tear the party into two, so, that they can remain relevant in Nigeria's political sphere.

For them to allow Malam Bamanga Tukur and President Jonathan to continue dominating the party will amount to their loosing ground in politics and they can go into political eclipse. So, rather the party be into eclipse but not them alone. If they allow themselves to be defeated;this is funny and indication of not knowing the exact location and the world politics is heading to and other politicians in other nations triumphed. The world is now at an era of digitalism/HD whereby almost everything has changed within the last 20 years. The Obama of USA, the David Cameron/Nick Clegg of Britain as an example of democratic political leadership in advanced nations.

So, Atiku and the 7 governors had no choice rather than to fracture the PDP. At this paradigm perspectives I can't imagine the set of leadership within PDP; the Bamangas, Annenis, Obasanjos and Umaru Dikkos that are all above the age of 80 years (or almost) of age can have modern/digital ideas of political democratic leadership.

How on earth could this kind of analog political leadership transform Nigeria into a developed and prosperous nation. And again, one should take note that no nation in this world can depend on this kind of analog leadership and expect to move to the promise land. Abraham Maslow (a giant in the field of human psychology) observed that from age 65 and above, the human has entered into psycho-social stage of "despair vs. death" a stage at which human brain cells start to degenerate without recovery.

I understand that all the crises rocking the PDP is as a result of poor and analog leadership which can lead to deterioration of our democratic governance. Let's imagine the year 1999 when PDP (the so-called largest political party in Africa) took-over the mantle of political democratic leadership in Nigeria. What were the problems of Nigeria and Nigerians then? Just to join the band wagon of globalization era? No! But what is democracy?

Democratic governance is a concept (idea) that emerged from the principles that are based on the understanding that an effective and vibrant system of democratic governance is one which is based on representative, equitable (across gender and other categories of people), transparent, accountable and inclusive institution/class; a vibrant, responsible and capable social media and a dynamic civic society. Democracy is defined by freedom of speech and assembly, free elections and a government resulting from such free elections, the separation of powers and the rule of law which is engaged in the political process. In my candid view; if internal democracy will not be ensured in the party Nigeria's democracy will be in peril. But unfortunately there is no internal democracy in PDP system of politics; only which-anting, blackmail and intimidation. This habit will never last for ever.

Second, what were the visions of PDP and how the visions could and should be practicalised to solve Nigeria's problems? There are three ways to use and measure the performance of any government or leadership; political, economic and social positions of each and every citizen of that nation. 1999 to the year 2013 is 14 years after the return to democratic leadership in Nigeria. How far so far? Did Nigerians ever imagine that economic hardship will rock this resourceful nation? (world Bank statistic indicate recently that Nigeria's GDP is sliding in the last one decade +).

Did Nigerians ever imagine that political office holder or government civil servant would steal money to the tune of billions of Naira at a time? Did Nigerians ever imagine that three PDP Presidents will spend billions amounting to $16+$5+$7=$28 billions of Dollars for electricity energy but still there is epileptic electricity power failure in Nigeria? Have we ever imagined that all the 33 democratic principles will be broken? What of party supremacy and internal democracy? Why competitive election and rigging? Why compromising justices in democratic setting? Why corruption and insecurity in Nigeria's democratic game? Have we (Nigerians) ever imagined all these? I agree with the view of Professor Nwabuze that Jonathan should not contest election in 2015. If I were President Jonathan I will make sure that the slogan of transforming Nigeria is not a mirage but a reality and I will ensure free and fair election in 2015. This will make him to left a legacy in Nigerian nation.

And again, I subscribe to the opinion of Professor George Friedman (author of the book titled The Next 100 years, London, 2009) that "Conventional political analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination". Have we ever imagined or predicted what were mentioned above would happen along the way in Nigeria's politics? PDP will never be the same. Because Atiku and the 7 governors have no option than what they did. And if care is not taken the PDP will be defeated in the elections of 2015---pure and simple. PDP in now moving into political eclipse. May God save Nigeria.

Abbati Bako (psc) bsis, UK (Political Strategist)
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